Everyone playing these markets is using the same sources of information for their buys. The markets almost directly mirror the polls pre-caucus. So, really, what’s the point? The “wisdom” of the crowd is really only as good as the sources of information the crowd has available to it. Prediction markets are really supposed to aggregate opinions from a group, if the entire group has the exact same sources of information, and none of them are capable of adding any new ways of interpreting the information, then the “prediction” part of the market fails, and it really just becomes a mirror market.
In this case, it mirrored a bunch of failed polls. So, really, why aren’t these guys asking why the polls failed?
If there’s anything we’ve learned from the financial markets, we need some derivatives here! A prediction market for the confidence that a prediction market is correct. Or perhaps equivalently in this case, a prediction market for the accuracy of the polls. Allowing you to calibrate a specific market, to know what “90% confidence” in a market should actually correspond to as your confidence when using that market’s prediction.