http://weblog.lonelylion.com/2008/01/10/more-on-the-prediction-market-failure-to-predict-new-hampshire/ Chris McAvoy's Blog Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:51:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 http://weblog.lonelylion.com/2008/01/10/more-on-the-prediction-market-failure-to-predict-new-hampshire/#comment-16566 Luke Thu, 10 Jan 2008 19:08:22 +0000 http://weblog.lonelylion.com/2008/01/10/more-on-the-prediction-market-failure-to-predict-new-hampshire/#comment-16566 If there's anything we've learned from the financial markets, we need some derivatives here! A prediction market for the confidence that a prediction market is correct. Or perhaps equivalently in this case, a prediction market for the accuracy of the polls. Allowing you to calibrate a specific market, to know what "90% confidence" in a market should actually correspond to as your confidence when using that market's prediction. If there’s anything we’ve learned from the financial markets, we need some derivatives here! A prediction market for the confidence that a prediction market is correct. Or perhaps equivalently in this case, a prediction market for the accuracy of the polls. Allowing you to calibrate a specific market, to know what “90% confidence” in a market should actually correspond to as your confidence when using that market’s prediction.

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